China Feed Market: Corn Share Falls From 47% to 29% as Hog Sector Contracts

Feed economics, sow-herd contraction and cheaper substitutes are reshaping China’s world’s-largest pig market

China’s animal-feed market is undergoing a notable formulation shift as prolonged weakness in hog profitability reduces pig-feed demand and encourages manufacturers to substitute cheaper grains for corn.

According to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service assessment, the proportion of corn in Chinese feed rations declined from approximately 47% in January to 29% in August 2026. That is a substantial change in formulation economics within only seven months.

Hog profitability is the principal driver

The underlying issue is not simply corn availability. China’s hog sector has experienced prolonged profitability pressure, contributing to sow-herd liquidation and weaker demand for pig feed.

The resulting reduction in feed demand is being compounded by the increasing competitiveness of alternative grains. Feed manufacturers are increasingly using:

• wheat;

• barley;

• sorghum;

• broken rice.

This is allowing producers to reduce ration costs while maintaining overall feed availability.

China’s 2026–27 grain balance

USDA FAS forecasts China’s 2026–27 corn production at approximately 306 million tonnes, compared with 301.2 million tonnes previously. Corn imports are expected to recover to approximately 6 million tonnes, compared with an estimated 4 million tonnes in 2025–26.

Nevertheless, projected corn consumption has been reduced to approximately 322 million tonnes, one million tonnes below the previous forecast. The crucial issue is therefore not supply scarcity. It is changing demand composition.

Wheat consumption is forecast at approximately 150 million tonnes, two million tonnes higher than the previous outlook, partly because of increased feed use.

Broken rice becomes increasingly important

Broken rice is also emerging as a significant feed competitor. Imports from countries including India, Myanmar and Vietnam have remained elevated because broken rice can be competitively priced relative to corn and whole rice.

This is particularly relevant for Asian feed markets because it means China’s feed manufacturers have an increasingly diverse raw-material basket.

Implications for feed-additive companies

A changing grain mix does not necessarily reduce the need for animal-health and nutrition products. It can actually increase the need for formulation optimisation. Changing ingredients can alter:

• nutrient digestibility;

• starch availability;

• gut fermentation;

• viscosity;

• mycotoxin exposure;

• amino-acid balance;

• feed conversion;

• intestinal microbiota.

This creates potential opportunities for: enzymes + probiotics + phytogenics + acidifiers + mycotoxin binders + amino-acid optimisation + precision nutrition.

What this means for animal health

China’s feed market is a useful demonstration of how animal-health economics increasingly depend on the intersection between commodity prices and biological efficiency. When hog margins are weak, producers cannot simply increase spending.

Instead, they seek technologies that improve: FCR → daily gain → gut health → mortality → medication costs → days to market.

This puts pressure on animal-health suppliers to demonstrate measurable economic returns rather than relying solely on product claims.

Analyst view

The fall in corn inclusion from 47% to 29% is the most important number in this story. It shows that China’s feed industry is rapidly adapting to changing livestock economics.

For global feed-additive companies, China should therefore not be viewed simply as a huge volume market. It is increasingly a sophisticated test of whether nutrition technologies can maintain animal performance when formulations change rapidly.

For India, the lesson is particularly relevant – As Indian poultry, dairy and swine producers face volatile maize, soybean meal and other feed-input prices, precision formulation and feed-efficiency technologies could become increasingly important competitive tools.